EUR
Comment: Messy, random small moves at the upper edge of a ‘triangle’ consolidation pattern, though note that one-month at-the-money implied volatility has picked up a little. The Euro is no longer overbought though momentum is nil. We feel that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume, if not this month then in October.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4275; stop below 1.4085. Short term target 1.4350.
EUR/JPY
Comment: Dropping again, trading below a thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’, and Yen crosses are looking increasingly top-heavy. A drop below 131.00 should add to downside pressure, a move which might accelerate causing another sudden slide to the 127.00 area, increasing at-the-money implied volatility.
Strategy: Sell at 132.00, adding to 132.50; stop well above 133.55. Short term target 131.00, re-selling below 131.00 for 127.00 (and probably a lot more further out).
GBP
Comment: Trading within a thinning Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and there is a small chance that Cable may try and hold above the top of the formation.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6315; stop well below 1.6100. First target 1.6380, then 1.6600.
JPY
Comment: Dropping towards July’s low at 91.73, the nine-day moving average limiting highs and putting the US dollar into oversold territory. A break below 91.50 should see implied at-the-money volatility increase significantly and increasing bearish momentum.
Strategy: Sell at 92.40, adding to 93.00; stop above 93.55. Short term target 92.00/91.75 with moves below here likely to becoming increasingly erratic.
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Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:40 GMT
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