Forecast on JPY Crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY)

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Daily Reports (Trends, Precise Entry & Exit levels and Strategies) on 9 Crosses- USD Majors, USD Minors & JPY Crosses.

EURJPY

EURJPY closed @ 13160 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day's low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 5 (U Turn Zone). The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the price is Converging towards the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 13045 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 13620 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy and Downside may be limited. The Price is trading Below Monthly, Weekly open and closed just below the Sup Zone 1. The Price on the Hourly is in a Range trading and expect a Choppy session a head with an Upside bias, on the 5 min is Choppy but 13110-13030 is a critical level to watch for the bulls. Conservative traders should look to be Sidelined or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders look to do the same or LONG Cautiously near 13110-13030 with a tight Stop for a quick profit.

GBPJPY

GBPJPY closed @ 15010 which was UNCHANGED from the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 15135 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 15545 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy until the breakout happens. The Price is trading Below the Monthly, Weekly open and closed within Zone 1. The Price on the Hourly is in a Range trading and expect a Choppy session a head , on the 5 min is also Choppy but 14945-14785 are the critical levels to pay attention. Conservative traders should look to be Sidelined or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders look to do the same until there is a clear signal.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY closed @ 7690 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Tgt 1 and the Low was 15 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 7590 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways Down while 8025 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy and Downside may be limited. The Price is trading Below Monthly,Weekly open and closed within Zone 1.The Price on the Hourly is in a Range Trading and expect a choppy session a head, on the 5 min is also Choppy but 7650-7590 are the critical levels to watch . Conservative traders should look to be Sidelined or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders look to do the same or LONG near 7650-7590 with a tight Stop for a quick profit.

• WebFX3_030909.pdf

Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:06 GMT

Forecast on USD Minors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD)

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Daily Reports (Trends, Precise Entry & Exit levels and Strategies) on 9 Crosses- USD Majors, USD Minors & JPY Crosses.

USDCHF

USDCHF closed @ 10610 which was BELOW the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Res Zone 1 and the Low was 20 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Tgt 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish but Weak and the price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed for the Bears. Hourly Trend is Sideways Up while 10525 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways while 10845 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy and Downside may be limited. The Price is trading marginally Above Monthly, Weekly open and closed just below Sup Zone 1. The Price on the Hourly time is within Range Trading expect the price to turn up soon, on the 5 min is Choppy but 10560-25 levels should not be seen to maintain the bullish outlook. Conservative traders should look to be Sidelined or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders should do the same , Cautiously LONG near 10560-25 level or the break of 10640 level with 10720-10785 as price targets.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD closed @ 8340 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Res Zone 5 (U Turn Zone) and the Low was PRECISELY at Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Turning Down while 8455 holds and Daily Trend is Sideways while 8140 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy and Upside may be limited. The Price is trading Below Monthly, Weekly open and closed well above the Res Zone 1. The Price on the Hourly is in a Range Trading but the Upside is limited , on the 5 min is Choppy and expect the pullback to be limited to 8420-55 levels. The price should not exceed 8455-85 level to maintain the bearish outlook. Conservative traders should look to SHORT near 8420-55 levels or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels.Aggressive traders should look to do the same with 8290-40 levels as price targets.

USDCAD

USDCAD closed @ 11055 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day's trading range. The High was 10 pips from Precise Trader's Res Tgt 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader's Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are MIXED and the price is Converging towards the MA, so CAUTIOUS approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways while 10910 holds and Daily Trend is also Sideways while 10660 holds, so expect the price to be Choppy with a Upside bias. The Price is trading Above Monthly,Weekly open and closed within Zone 1.The Price on the Hourly is in a Range Trading but it is rather weak so expect some consolidation to take place , on the 5 min is also Choppy but 10970-10 are the levels to watch for the bulls. Conservative traders should look to be Sidelined or strictly trade only at Precise Traders Report levels. Aggressive traders should look do the same or Cautiously LONG near 10970-10 levels for quick profit with a tight Stop.

• WebFX2_030909.pdf

Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:04 GMT

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

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INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD

EUR/USD:1.4275

Last Update 03 Sep 2009 05:41 GMT

Euro's retreat after y'day's rally to 1.4295 sug
gests sideways trading wud be seen n pullback to
1.4243/47 can't be ruled out b4 prospect of another
rise, however, abv said lvl is needed to extend nr
term upmove fm 1.4177 to 1.4344.

Buy on dips with stop as indicated, break wud
defer n risk weakness to 1.4200....

Range Forecast
1.4252 / 1.4295

Resistance/Support
R: 1.4295/1.4344/1.4379
S: 1.4247/1.4192/1.4177

Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 08:00 GMT

EUR: Attempt small longs at 1.4275; stop below 1.4085

EUR

Comment: Messy, random small moves at the upper edge of a ‘triangle’ consolidation pattern, though note that one-month at-the-money implied volatility has picked up a little. The Euro is no longer overbought though momentum is nil. We feel that the long term trend to US dollar weakness will resume, if not this month then in October.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4275; stop below 1.4085. Short term target 1.4350.

EUR/JPY

Comment: Dropping again, trading below a thin Ichimoku ‘cloud’, and Yen crosses are looking increasingly top-heavy. A drop below 131.00 should add to downside pressure, a move which might accelerate causing another sudden slide to the 127.00 area, increasing at-the-money implied volatility.

Strategy: Sell at 132.00, adding to 132.50; stop well above 133.55. Short term target 131.00, re-selling below 131.00 for 127.00 (and probably a lot more further out).

GBP

Comment: Trading within a thinning Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and there is a small chance that Cable may try and hold above the top of the formation.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6315; stop well below 1.6100. First target 1.6380, then 1.6600.

JPY

Comment: Dropping towards July’s low at 91.73, the nine-day moving average limiting highs and putting the US dollar into oversold territory. A break below 91.50 should see implied at-the-money volatility increase significantly and increasing bearish momentum.

Strategy: Sell at 92.40, adding to 93.00; stop above 93.55. Short term target 92.00/91.75 with moves below here likely to becoming increasingly erratic.

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Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:40 GMT

US ADP private payrolls falls 298k in Aug

News and views

Risk markets settled back to a more neutral mood from the previous day’s sombre tone. The S&P500 closed down 0.3% in a lacklustre session, although the banks’ index lost another 1.9%. Oil and copper were largely unchanged, but gold took centre stage (probably lagging the previous day’s bout of risk aversion), gaining 2.8% from the Sydney close. US 10yr treasuries rallied by 10bp, paying more attention to the consensus-disappointing ADP payrolls report and the FOMC minutes. Fed members increased their confidence the US economy is bottoming, but added the recovery would be slow and beset by uncertainty, and the Fed Funds rate would stay low for an extended period. Signs are the G20 meeting tomorrow will be conducted in a similar spirit and reinforce the globe’s expansionary policies.

The US dollar lost ground after midday London, partially clawing back the previous day’s gains. EUR gained a cent to 1.4294. GBP outperformed from 1.6115 to 1.6300. JPY rallied from 93 to 92.11, talk of a strong option barrier at 92.00 halting the move.

AUD gained 1% to 0.8374, unsurprising following the positive GDP surprise yesterday. Influential columnist Terry McCrann last night wrote the figures support any RBA intention to hike, but won’t accelerate the timing of the first move.

NZD remained aloof from the soft US dollar theme, bouncing only modestly from its 0.6686 low to 0.6756, and consolidating around 0.6740. AUD/NZD recorded an impressive bounce off the bottom of the four month-long channel to the middle, to 1.2417.

US ADP private payrolls falls 298k in Aug. That is the fifth straight month of improvement. ADP has a recent tendency to understate the monthly change in (i.e. has not improved as much as) the official estimate of private payrolls, by as much as 169k back in May, so we see no need to change our forecast that total payrolls falls by 150k in August (–160k private, +10k govt), due out this Friday night. Still on the labour market, corporate layoff announcements were fewer last month, and indeed less than in August last year – more evidence that job market conditions are improving.

US factory goods orders were constrained to a 1.3% rise in July, reflecting upwardly revised durables (previously reported as up 4.9%) but a near 2% fall in non-durables, mostly due to lower energy prices pulling down the value of orders. Factory inventories fell by 0.7% at the start of Q3, down from Q2’s monthly average pace of decline of just over 1.0%.

US productivity growth was revised up slightly from 6.4% to 6.6% annualised in Q2, and so unit labour costs were revised to a slightly steeper fall of –5.9% annualised compared to –5.8% previously. All very minor stuff, following the very slight tweaks to the data in the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth.

The FOMC minutes for the 11-12 August meeting revealed growing confidence among committee members that the downturn is ending, although the recovery is expected to be gradual and vulnerable to any further shocks. The committee discussed slowing down the pace of their $1.45tn RMBS and agency debt purchase program, which is currently scheduled to run until year-end, but ultimately agreed that it wasn’t necessary to make a decision yet.

Euroland GDP growth was unrevised at –0.1% in Q2. The breakdown showed that household spending, supported by car scrappage schemes, turned modestly positive for the first quarter since early 2008.

UK construction PMI rises from 47.0 to 47.7 in Aug. The pace of contraction of the construction sector continues to diminish in the UK. With the factory PMI dipping back below 50 in yesterday’s August reading, all eyes are now on the services PMI for August, out tomorrow.

Outlook

AUD and NZD outlook today: These currencies have not technically confirmed either a readiness to move higher or the beginning of a post-March correction. The technicals (pointing lower) and fundamentals (pointing higher) are at odds, and leave us in a neutral stance until price action adds directional clues. Major support and resistance levels to watch are 0.8150 and 0.8500 for AUD, and 0.6630 and 0.6900 for NZD. Today’s data is second-tier – trade balance and services PMI in Australia, and ANZ’s commodity index update in NZ.

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Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:35 GMT

Daily FX Forecast

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Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:24 GMT

Technical Major Currencies Morning Report

EUR/USD

The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to maintain trading above 1.4250 yesterday, where it is currently attempting to gather enough bullish momentum to incline towards breaching 1.4375. This breakout will open the way for the pair to target 1.4650 initially. This incline requires 1.4145 to remain intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3975 and the key resistance at 1.4650

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4720 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support : 1.4250 1.4170 1.4145 1.4100 1.4070
Resistance : 1.4300 1.4375 1.4430 1.4475 1.4550

Recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair from 1.4250 to 1.4375 and stop loss below 1.4145 might be appropriate.

GBP/USD

The Cable continues to fluctuate near the previously breached support currently at 1.6395, where our bullish scenario remains after slightly correcting to the downside to build a solid base at 1.6180 and then rebound to the upside on the intraday basis, in an attempt to breach the 1.6330 resistance level to target 1.6560. This scenario remains as far as 1.6180 remains intact; whereas the stochastic indicator supports the slight downside correction.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5870 and the key resistance at 1.6555

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7100

Support : 1.6240 1.6180 1.6155 1.6095 1.6050
Resistance : 1.6295 1.6330 2.6380 1.6455 1.6505

Recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying the pair with the breach of 1.6330 to 1.6560 and stop loss below 1.6240 might be appropriate.



USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair was able to reach our first downside target at 91.90, yet momentum indicators have reached an oversold area, which may result in a slight upside correction to 92.80 before reversing to the downside on the intraday basis targeting 91.00. The decline for today remains as far as trading is below 93.15 on the four hour charts.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 90.00 and the key resistance at 95.10

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support : 91.90 91.40 90.95 90.40 90.00
Resistance : 92.80 93.15 93.80 94.05 94.45

Recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair from 92.80 to 91.45 and stop loss above 93.55 might be appropriate.

USD/CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair declined yesterday, as expected, yet fluctuated between the 38.2% and 50% corrections as it neared the pivot support at 1.0550, where we wait to witness a breach to the downside. From here we expect the pair to decline on the intraday basis confirmed by the breach of the above mentioned support, with a four hour close below it to target 1.0400 initially before heading towards 1.0000. The stochastic indicator may affect trading today, as it may result in mixed trading until the pair is able to gather the momentum it needs to decline. Trading below 1.0700 is needed to decline today.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0300 and the key resistance at 1.0915

The general trend so far is to the upside as far as 1.0550 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support : 1.0550 1.0480 1.0450 1.0400 1.0375
Resistance : 1.0635 1.0700 1.0765 1.0800 1.0890

Recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair with the breach of 1.0550 to 1.0400 and stop loss above 1.0635 might be appropriate.


USD/CAD

The Dollar versus Loonie pair touched the key resistance for the upside channel that it is currently trading within, and reversed to the downside towards the pivot support at 1.0945. The resistance level, colored in red in the above image, should reverse the pair to the downside to enter the key downside channel, yet a weekly close below 1.0945 is needed. We expect the pair to decline on the intraday basis to reach 1.0880 as far as 1.1130 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0625 and the key resistance at 1.1320

The general trend is o the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support : 1.1020 1.0945 1.0900 1.0880 1.0825
Resistance : 1.1060 1.1130 1.1160 1.1200 1.1255

Recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is selling the pair with the breach of 1.1020 to 1.0880 and stop loss above 1.1130 might be appropriate.

Published on Thu, Sep 3 2009, 06:23 GMT